First of all, the Democrats will lose if it does. If a unified Republican front puts the Dems under fire for 6 months with no response, they have all of 2 months to raise money and beat McCain in the general. Clearly, it wouldn't be possible at that point.
Secondly, there are 5 weeks between Ohio/Texas and…
Can’t disagree with your logic. Agreed on TX, OH & PA. I would even say that Clinton needs convincing wins, like Obama has been getting, to stay in the race. 48% to 44% won’t do it because the delegates will be split pretty evenly.
The superdelegates will go along with whoever wins the most delegates. To do otherwise would piss off many democrat voters who would be so disgusted that they would stay away from the polls in November, which would give the election to the republicans.
The superdelegates all want a democrat president more than anything. They would not jeopardize that.
IF she looses Texas and Ohio, I agree. She is in bad shape. But she hasn’t lost them yet, and the polls I have seen have her leading in both. At this point, we just can’t say. She could bounce back like she did after Iowa, and the two of them could see-saw back and forth for the rest of the primary season. If they are still close, then a credentials fight over Florida and Michigan, along with the super delegate wild card could keep this going right up until the convention.
I’m not saying that will happen, or should happen. It’s just a realistic possibility. I voted for Obama in the Colorado Caucus, and I hope he breaks away before then. But Clinton is an experienced, resilient campaigner, and it would be premature to count her out.
Also, it does not necessarily follow that some prolonged drama would hurt the Democrats. It keeps people interested. In 1976, Jimmy Carter had a huge lead over Gerald Ford prior to the Republican Convention. But Reagan was challenging Ford, and the result was not decided until the actual balloting. Ford got a huge post convention bounce, cutting Carter’s lead in half by the end of the convention. The final outcome was close, with Carter leading by only 3 % of the popular vote.
Odds are, it won’t go all the way to the convention, as you say. But it could, if Hillary ends up slightly behind in delegates, and hopes to turn it around by making a deal on Michigan and Florida.
I’m not sure a drawn-out Dem primary battle would be to the Reps’ advantage. Right now, the Dems’ horse race is getting most of the free media attention. And if it continues neck-and-neck, the whole world will be watching the Dem convention.
However, you’re right that if the end result appears to have been decided by the party bosses, or by sleazy-looking tactics, the nomination will be seriously tainted.
I wish you were right about it not going to convention for the Dem’s. Unfourtunately, the stupid “super-lame” delegates seem to back Hillary and will keep it close even without her winning too many states. This is because no Dem primary is winner take all. As long as she doesn’t get blown out, it will go to convention. I personally hate the current system with delegates and super delegates. The fairest and most desirable way would be to do a popular vote from all states and whoever gets more votes is the nominee. Period.
I agree with what you say here. Hillary cannot go on if she loses Ohio and Texas. But I think she will, and she’ll go on to win the nomination. She is strong among the demographics of rural blue colar voters, and Ohio and Texas have that in balk. I just dont see Obama carrying these two states. Im not sold that she has to win PA. She can make it close and split the delegates, and she still has the nomination, presuming she of course wins the other two states.
I agree with you.
Obama can pull of these 3 states today, then Hawaii and Wisconsin(which he is favored).
Then pull off at least a close 2nd if not win in Ohio and Texas.
It will not have to go to the election.
It will be over…
Hillary will not go easy
These CLintons never back down….
there will be arguements about Florida and Michigan
so it might go to a few more states…. or you will see
Howard Dean and AL Gore step in to make peace.
Hillary should just go become a college administrator.
Give it up.
Most members of the DNC now think it would be best to reopen Florida and Michigan, allow the candidates to campaign there, and have a new primary. They are worried that if Michigan and Florida are rejected, it could go to the courts… and it would if the election was handed to Clinton because she left her name on the ballots there. If she won the Presidency based on that, many people would revolt against her and the Dem party.
It doesn’t matter if it goes to the conventions. Many more democrats are voting in the primaries than republicans and that usually is a strong indication of the winning party. That being said, the only way the GOP has a chance is if Clinton is the nominee.
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Regardless of the last one standing, the Democrats had best get behind them 100% come November or we WILL have another 4 years of mayhem.